Published

Rodríguez, Irene (2026). Legitimising prejudice? The impact of radical right party presence on anti-immigration attitude expression, Electoral Studies, 101.

Article Replication
Abstract
Are citizens hiding their true preferences? The entry of nativist and nationalist radical right parties can help normalise certain attitudes considered taboo among the population. This paper examines whether the parliamentary entry of radical right parties is associated with changes in the public expression of anti-immigration attitudes. This argument is tested using a difference-in-differences (DiD) methodology, examining whether the population expresses more negative attitudes towards immigration after the entry of Vox, a Spanish RRP, in the Andalusian Regional Parliament in 2018. Results show a strong positive relationship between Vox’s entry in Parliament and people’s proclivity to express negative attitudes towards immigrants of the Andalusian population right after the election, compared to citizens from other regions of Spain. However, this effect does not hold in the long term. The findings in this article have important implications for our understanding of attitude normalisation and RRP effects on society.

Herbig, Lisa, Asli Unan, Theresa Kuhn, Irene Rodríguez, Toni Rodon, & Heike Klüver (2025). Closed borders, closed minds? COVID-related border closures, EU support, and hostility towards immigrants, European Journal of Political Research, 64(4), pp. 1923-1944.

Article
Abstract
Do border closures affect political attitudes? While a large body of research has discussed the effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic on nationalism and outgroup hostility, much less is known about how one of the main policy responses to stop the virus, closing the national borders, has impacted political attitudes. We argue that the sudden and unprecedented closures of national borders in the COVID‐19 crisis decreased EU support and increased hostility towards immigrants. These closures signalled that people from across the border are a threat to public health and showed little trust in European governance. We have collected fine‐grained regional data on COVID‐19‐related border closures in Germany that we matched with survey data from the German Socio‐Economic Panel. We rely on a difference‐in‐differences design to estimate the causal effect of closed borders on European identity and outgroup hostility. While we find that border closures decrease EU support and increase hostility towards immigrants, these effects fade away relatively quickly. Hence, our study suggests that border closures have only limited impact on political attitudes. Our findings have important implications for the growing literature on border politics in the EU and elsewhere.

Rodríguez, Irene, Toni Rodon, Asli Unan, Lisa Herbig, Heike Klüver, & Theresa Kuhn (2025). Benchmarking pandemic response: How the UK’s Vaccine Rollout Impacted Popular support for the EU, British Journal of Political Science, 55(e35), pp. 1-16.

Article Replication
Abstract
Does the EU’s performance compared to neighboring countries influence public support? Using a benchmarking approach, we argue that people compare their country’s performance within the EU to that of a non-EU country, shaping their attitudes. The COVID-19 vaccine rollout in 2020 provides an ideal test case, as governments launched vaccination programs at different speeds. The UK began weeks before EU countries, allowing us to examine its impact on EU support. Using an Unexpected Event during Surveys Design (UESD) with Eurobarometer data, we find that the UK’s early rollout significantly reduced specific policy support for the EU but did not consistently affect diffuse support. Our findings offer key insights into attitudes toward European integration and performance evaluations.

Rodon, Toni & Irene Rodríguez (2024). A bitter victory and a sweet defeat: the July 2023 Spanish general election, South European Society and Politics, 28(3), pp. 335-357.

Article
Abstract
This article examines the outcome of the July 2023 election in Spain. Despite the right- and far-right bloc winning a higher share of the votes, the two main incumbent parties on the left (PSOE and Sumar) defeated the odds and returned to government thanks to a post-election agreement with six other parties, including the Catalan pro-independence political formations. We show how coordination in the left bloc was important in shaping the outcome. An increase in mobilisation and strategic voting across districts contributed to preventing the right-wing bloc from achieving an absolute majority of seats.

Under Review

Rodríguez, Irene, Toni Rodon, & Zach Dickson. A coordinated solution for a coordination problem? A Civic Education experiment on climate change and attitudes towards the European Union.

PAP
Abstract
Climate change is a global challenge that demands both individual action and coordinated policy responses. As a supranational body, the European Union (EU) is often viewed as a key actor in driving collective efforts to address the climate crisis. However, its effectiveness depends on the support and cooperation of its Member States. In this article, we explore whether exposure to an educational session emphasising the importance of EU coordination influences support for EU-led climate action. Partnering with the “More in 24” campaign – an initiative designed to inform and engage young voters about the EU – we conducted a randomised field experiment to assess the causal impact of an EU-educational workshop on high school students’ attitudes towards climate change and the EU’s role in addressing it. Although perceived knowledge about the EU marginally increased, we find that the campaign did not increase students’ opinion that the EU should have a greater role in fighting climate change, and had limited and insignificant effects on most related outcomes studied. These findings highlight the limits of short educational initiatives and the need for more sustained and intensive interventions to alter deeply held political attitudes.

In progress

Rodríguez, Irene. Digital battlegrounds: How political parties tailor advertising to electoral contexts.

Abstract
The rise of social media has transformed political communication, providing parties with powerful tools to strategically target voters across geography and demographics. However, we know little about how electoral incentives drive parties’ digital advertising choices. This study examines how Spanish political parties adjust their digital advertising strategies based on electoral outcomes and features of electoral competition, focusing on elements such as district magnitude, party system fragmentation, and electoral margins. Drawing on approximately 17,000 political ads placed between 2020 and 2025, linked with electoral and demographic data across 49 districts, I analyse geographic variation in Meta-based ad targeting (Facebook and Instagram). The findings show that even in digital spaces, traditional electoral logics persist: parties advertise more in larger districts and are more likely to target areas where they narrowly won or lost the last seat. These results demonstrate that digital campaign strategies are not random or uniformly distributed – they reflect calculated decisions shaped by electoral rules and political geography. This study contributes to the growing literature on online political communication by linking platform behaviour with institutional incentives and by emphasising the continued relevance of electoral context in shaping digital strategy.

Rodríguez, Irene. One seat ahead: The impact of narrow electoral wins on political parties’ digital ad strategy.

Abstract
How strong are the electoral informational cues of losing or winning a seat in parliament? Do they alter parties’ digital campaign strategies to keep a won seat or to recover a lost one? Do parties run more ads if they (narrowly) lose to conquer the share of the electorate they missed before? This paper tries to shed light on this dynamic by employing a Regression Discontinuity Design using Spanish electoral data and advertising data from the Meta Ad Library from 2020 to 2025. Observational analyses show that many races to get the last seat are won by a very narrow margin, which can act as an incentive for political parties to employ their resources in order to keep or win this last seat in subsequent elections, by signalling how much effort is needed to overcome the difference. RD results show that loser parties run more ads than winner parties, indicating that parties that narrowly missed winning the last seat run more ads than those that narrowly won it. This effect is larger when margins are calculated relative to party size (party vote share) instead of district total votes. This indicates that parties respond more strongly to their own electoral performance near the threshold than to the overall district-level vote margin, highlighting the strategic importance of party-specific competition in shaping campaign behaviour.